The Hurricane Hunters were investigating the tropical wave in the Central Caribbean Friday afternoon and could not find a closed low-level circulation. Still, visible satellite pictures were impressive during the day with deep convection firing around the broad area of low pressure. Upper-level winds will become somewhat more-favorable in the coming days and the development into a tropical depression or tropical storm could really happen at any time.

The computer model tracks are tightly clustered with a general track to the WNW over the next 120 hours.

This track would take the system over the Yucatan Peninsula, which would weaken, or at least prevent, the system from strengthening for that period of time. Once in the Southern Gulf, further development would depend upon upper-level winds and the organization of the low-level circulation. Whether this system develops into a storm or not, deep moisture will push into the Gulf by the early-mid portions of next week. Much of that moisture will work through Acadiana, resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday through the end of the week. The image below is the 6-hour accumulated precipitation from the GFS model for the 1 PM to 7 PM period on Wednesday.

We could certainly use the moisture on a broad-scale across Acadiana. The past couple weeks have been abnormally dry. Keep checking into TV-10 this weekend and we’ll bring you the latest. And remember, this is just the beginning…tropical activity doesn’t really increase until late-August and September.

I would safely say that is has been a hot July so far across Acadiana. At the Lafayette Regional Airport, we have seen temperatures in the 90s for 13 days in a row and we will more than likely top 90 degrees for the next several days. The highest reading out of those 13 days has been 94 degrees, which we have reached twice. The last time we saw a temperature below 90 degrees was July 4th, and on that day it was 89. The average high for this time of year is about 91 degrees, so we have been at or just above average for most of the month of July. As for Acadiana Regional Airport, there has been a temperature reading of 90 or higher for the last 13 days, too, but the highest temperature reading there has been 95 degrees, which has been reached twice this month. We are right in the middle of summer, so this is expected, but I am looking forward to the less humid, cooler days of fall, which will probably roll around in about three months. Have a good weekend and stay cool.

Here’s the latest computer model guidance regarding the tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean. The Hurricane Hunters were out there Thursday evening and found a broad low-level circulation. Although not well-defined now, that may change in the future. Many of the hurricane computer models increase the system to a tropical storm by the end of the weekend. The image above shows the compilation of tracks from the Thursday evening model runs. Notice that many of the models take the disturbance into the Gulf of Mexico by the early-mid part of next week. Could we be looking at a tropical storm at that point? Yes. Could the system just be a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms? Yes. The point is, we cannot pinpoint intensity or track at this point, but this should be on your “radar screen”, so-to-speak, as we head thru the end of the week and weekend. You can count on us to keep you updated.

We’re watching a few areas across the Atlantic Basin for possible development. Of course we still have Bertha, a strong tropical storm, and the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record for July. However, Bertha is over the open waters of the Central Atlantic and poses no threat to land. So, we’ll focus on the areas closer to home. First is an area of showers and thunderstorms over the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Due to the interaction with land, development is not likely to occur quickly, but some computer models are hinting at a surface low emerging into the far NE Gulf by the end of the week. The main result will be beneficial rainfall across the Sunshine State. The second area is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean. There are signs of organization, but the system will run out of time and will end up dumping heavy rain across parts of Nicaragua and Honduras later Thursday and Friday. Finally, the tropical wave near the Windward Islands is fighting some dry air and less-than-ideal upper-level winds to show signs of life. There is potential for slow strengthening into a tropical storm in the coming days as the movement continues westward, but this isn’t a certainty. We’ll keep our eyes on the tropics and keep you posted.

Check out that area of cloud cover from central Florida extending into the Gulf Of Mexico. That is an area of low pressure that has been causing some heavy rain over portions of Florida for the past several days. That area of low pressure is going to slowly drift north and it may strengthen over the next few days, but it’s not expected to form into a tropical system because it’s just too close to land. It will bring a lot of heavy rain to central and southern Florida today, then that heavy rain will head north into the Florida Panhandle by the end of the week. Heavy rain with this system may spread as far north as northern Alabama and northern Georgia by the weekend. There is always a chance this will turn into a tropical system, but it seems unlikely at this point. We will continue to monitor it as it heads north.

I get quite a few requests from people looking for past weather data, including rainfall. While we have a daily record of rainfall from the main observing stations, such as New Iberia, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, Alexandria, etc., there are not many ground-truth reports from locations inbetween. However, Doppler radar is a great tool to break down not only where storms were at a certain time, but also how much rain fell over a certain period of time and even the speed of the winds in a thunderstorm. Much of that data is available to view for free, if you know the source. The image above is an example of a rainfall estimate back on Thursday, May 15. I’m helping out a subdivision developer that’s dealing with drainage issues. So you want the source, right?! Check out the National Climatic Data Center website to create maps like this one. You’ll first want to check out the data inventory and “order” the data, which produces a data request that gets e-mailed to you. Then you simply run the Java NEXRAD Data Viewer and input your data request number. From that point, you can zoom in, zoom out, add borders, towns, interstates, etc. Check it out the next time you need radar data for a specific date and location.

While Bertha continues spinning in the Central Atlantic, a new tropical system is developing in the Southern Atlantic. Located around 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Monday evening, the disturbance has a very well-defined low-level circulation. Deep convection flared Monday morning, but had waned by afternoon. The disturbance is fighting a lot of dry air in its path, so development will likely be slow. However, most computer models do bring the circulation to tropical storm-strength in the 48-84 hour period. The image above is a look at the track from those same models. We’ll keep a close eye on the tropical wave as we head thru the week.

We are watching another tropical wave that is showing some positive signs of some development. There is a cluster or thunderstorms and broad area of low pressure about 1500 miles east of the Windward islands. This tropical wave could become a tropical depression at anytime. It is in an area with warmer waters and little wind shear, making it favorable for some development. The wave is moving westward 10-15 mph. Right now the National Hurricane Center is indicating a “high” chance of development. That means the probability the wave will strengthen in the next 48 hours is greater than 50%.